This study evaluated whether baseline results of the Timed Up and Go (TUG) test is associated with future dementia occurrence.

Using the Korean National Health Insurance Service-National Health Screening Cohort database, we identified 49,283 subjects without a dementia diagnosis who participated in the National Screening Program for Transitional Ages at 66 years of age during 2007–2012. Gait impairment was defined as taking longer than 10 seconds to perform the TUG test. Dementia occurrence was defined by the first prescription for acetylcholinesterase inhibitors or N-Methyl-D-Aspartate receptor antagonist with an International Classification of Diseases 10th Revision (ICD-10) code for dementia (F00, F01, F02, F03, G30, F051, or G311) during 2007–2013. Cox proportional hazard regression models were used to assess the hazard ratios for dementia occurrence according to baseline TUG test results.

Mean follow-up period was 3.8 years. Incidence rates of dementia were 4.6 and 6.8 cases per 1,000 person-years in the normal and impaired TUG groups, respectively. The impaired TUG group showed a higher risk of total dementia incidence (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.34; 95% confidence interval [95% CI], 1.14–1.57). Subtype analysis showed that the impaired TUG group had a higher risk of Alzheimer’s disease (aHR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.06–1.51) and vascular dementia (aHR, 1.65; 95% CI, 1.19–2.30).

The TUG test result was associated with future dementia occurrence. More vigilant follow-up and early intervention to prevent dementia would benefit elderly people with impaired TUG test result.